IranLive

Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to commercial shipping by October 31, 2026?

52%chance of Yes0.052¢ last

24h volume: $0
Total volume: $10.4
Liquidity: $914.4
Open interest: $20
Traders: 2
Closes: in 8 days

Yes · price history

52¢Past month

$10.4 Vol.

YesPriceSharesTotal

55¢600$527.6
Asks52¢380$197.6

Last: 52¢Spread: 4¢

Bids48¢400$192
45¢600$462

Trader	Action	Price	Shares	Total	Time
@robinjoseph11998	Buy Yes	52¢	20	$10.40	Aug 25, 11:44 PM

About this market

The 60-day Versailles deadline for a US–Iran peace deal expired on August 17, 2026 with talks stalled. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic — promised under the interim deal alongside lifting the US blockade — remains the central unresolved issue, with roughly a fifth of global oil transit suspended.

iran hormuz oil geopolitics us

Discussion1

@robinjoseph11998Aug 25, 11:45 PM
i started :)

Trade

Testnet

Amount (USD)

Price per share: 52¢
Est. shares: 96.15
Potential payout: $96.15
Potential profit: +$46.15
Fees: shown on fill

Orders execute against the live testnet exchange — balances and positions update for real.

Resolution

Resolves YES if regular commercial shipping transit through the Strait of Hormuz officially resumes on or before October 31, 2026 (23:59 UTC), as confirmed by at least two of: Reuters, AP, or official IMO/naval navigation notices. Isolated escorted convoys or humanitarian exceptions do not count — the strait must be declared open to ordinary commercial traffic. Resolves NO otherwise.

Source: Reuters and AP wire reporting; IMO navigational notices; U.S. Naval Forces Central Command announcements
Closes: Oct 31, 2026
Created: Aug 25, 2026

Order book

Recent trades1 print

About this market

Discussion1

Related markets