How Predicta works
Prediction markets turn opinions into prices. Here's the whole model in four steps.
- 1
Pick a question
Every market is a yes/no question about a real-world event — an election result, a rate decision, a product launch. Each has a close date and precise resolution criteria.
- 2
Read the price as a probability
Shares trade between 1¢ and 99¢. A Yes price of 72¢ means the market collectively estimates a 72% chance the event happens. Prices move as new information arrives.
- 3
Buy the side you believe
Think the market is underpricing the event? Buy Yes. Overpricing it? Buy No. You can sell at any time before the market closes — you don't have to wait for resolution.
- 4
Get paid when you're right
When the outcome is known, the market resolves. Winning shares settle at exactly $1.00 each; losing shares settle at $0.00. Your profit is the difference from what you paid.
A worked example
“Will the Fed cut rates in September?” trades at Yes 76¢ / No 24¢.
- You buy 100 Yes shares for $76.00.
- The Fed cuts → each share settles at $1.00 → you receive $100.00, a +$24.00 profit (+32%).
- The Fed holds → shares settle at $0.00 → you lose your $76.00 stake.
Common questions
Where do prices come from?
From trading. Buyers and sellers meet in an order book, exactly like a stock exchange. If demand for Yes rises, the Yes price rises — and with it the implied probability.
Who decides how a market resolves?
Each market names its resolution source up front — an official government release, a league's final table, an exchange price feed. Resolution follows the written criteria, not opinion.
Can I lose more than I put in?
No. The maximum loss on any position is what you paid for it. A share bought at 30¢ can go to $0.00, never below.
What does this demo include?
This build is a frontend product prototype. All markets, balances and trades are simulated locally — there are no real funds, order matching or blockchain transactions.